Putin and Zelensky declare rival Victory Day ceasefires as 26 die in fresh strikes

Russia and Ukraine declared rival ceasefires on Monday in the runup to the May 9 anniversary of the Soviet defeat of Nazi Germany, even as overnight Russian missile and drone strikes killed at least 26 people across Ukraine and Kyiv accused Moscow of "utter cynicism."

President Vladimir Putin announced a unilateral two-day truce for May 9 and 10, ostensibly to allow the customary Victory Day commemorations on Red Square to proceed unmolested. Russia's defense ministry warned that any Ukrainian attempt to disrupt the parade would trigger "a massive missile strike on the centre of Kyiv" and urged the civilian population and foreign diplomats to leave the capital.

Ukraine's response was sharp. Speaking at a summit of European leaders in Yerevan, Armenia, on Monday, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine would observe its own truce beginning at midnight on Wednesday, May 6, and would respond proportionately to Russian actions from that moment on. He set no end date for the Ukrainian truce.

"This is telling," Zelensky said of Russia's calls for a halt. "It shows they are not strong now, so we must keep up the pressure through sanctions on them."

Hours after Putin spoke, Russian forces fired more than 70 drones and several cruise missiles at Ukrainian targets. The strikes killed 26 people, wounded more than 80, and hit a Naftogaz natural-gas processing facility, the Ukrainian state energy company. The Poltava region, in central Ukraine, accounted for the largest single share of casualties.

"After the Russians' words about a ceasefire, today's massive missile and drone attacks on residential buildings, civilians and energy infrastructure show what their words are actually worth," Zelensky said.

A pared-down parade

This year's Victory Day parade in Moscow will take place without tanks, missiles or other heavy military equipment for the first time in nearly two decades. Russian officials have cited security concerns over Ukrainian drone strikes deep inside Russia. Ukraine has hit several Russian oil refineries in recent weeks, including the 400,000-barrel-per-day Kirishi refinery near St. Petersburg overnight on Monday.

Russia has also restricted cellphone internet service in Moscow and St. Petersburg in the run-up to the parade. State media said operators had begun warning subscribers of intermittent outages over the next several days. Putin used the same tactic in 2025 when he declared a 72-hour Victory Day ceasefire and shut down mobile internet in the capital.

Last year's 80th-anniversary parade drew the largest gathering of foreign leaders to Moscow in a decade, including Chinese President Xi Jinping, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico. Fico is the only Western European head of government scheduled to attend this year. Xi has not confirmed his attendance.

Russia's defense ministry framed the proposed truce as a courtesy to Victory Day veterans. The ministry said any Ukrainian violation would be met with "a massive missile strike on the centre of Kyiv" and warned that "the civilian population and employees of foreign diplomatic missions" should "leave the city promptly."

Mounting pressure on the front

The parallel ceasefire announcements come at a period of intensifying pressure on Russian forces in eastern Ukraine and on the Russian economy. Ukrainian drone strikes on oil infrastructure have curtailed about 12 per cent of Russian refining capacity since March, according to estimates from the International Energy Agency. The Iranian war that began on Feb. 28 has further squeezed Moscow, with Western sanctions tightening and the $2.1 billion emergency US arms package approved on May 1 redirecting Patriot interceptors to Israel and Gulf allies.

"The war in Iran looked like a gift for Russia. It hasn't worked out that way," wrote analysts at Vox magazine last week. "The combined momentum is producing a worse outcome for Moscow than the headline numbers suggest."

Zelensky urged Western capitals on Monday to push harder for an end to the war. He pointed to Russia's anxiety over Victory Day as evidence that drone attacks and sanctions were inflicting real damage. "Russia's defense ministry believes it cannot hold a parade in Moscow without Ukraine's goodwill," he said.

For now, the rival truces look unlikely to halt the fighting. Putin's truce begins on May 9, two days after the Ukrainian one starts. The Russian defense ministry has reserved the right to retaliate against any Ukrainian operations during the four-day window between the two start times, which would render the Ukrainian declaration moot.

Both governments framed their declarations as evidence of strategic discipline. Each accused the other of using the anniversary cynically. Western diplomats canvassed by Reuters in Brussels and Berlin on Tuesday described the declarations as "competing publicity exercises" and said NATO would not adjust its posture in response.

What happens next

Ukraine, which has been dependent on Patriot interceptors to defend its energy grid, has seen deliveries slow. Zelensky on Monday urged European capitals to step up production of the German IRIS-T air defense system as a substitute. Berlin has already accelerated IRIS-T orders, but the manufacturer Diehl Defence has said it cannot fully replace the lost Patriot capacity before late 2026.

"Putin is using May 9 to extract the maximum political value out of a moment when the West is distracted," said a senior Ukrainian official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Our job is to make him pay for that distraction."

The first test will come on Wednesday, when the Ukrainian ceasefire begins.