Senedd count begins as Labour faces end of 27-year rule in Wales

Counting in the Welsh Senedd election began on Friday with Welsh Labour facing the loss of a 27-year run in government and First Minister Eluned Morgan’s own seat under threat, according to BBC Wales.

Voters cast ballots Thursday across 16 new super-constituencies that each return six members, expanding the parliament from 60 to 96 seats under a more proportional system. No party is likely to reach the 49-seat majority threshold, although Reform UK’s Welsh leader Dan Thomas told BBC Wales on Tuesday a clean win was still mathematically possible.

A defeat in Wales would be the first time Labour fails to come first in a Wales-wide election since 1922.

A historic break, if confirmed

Plaid Cymru and Reform UK are running neck and neck in opinion polling for first place. Both parties pitched the campaign as a two-horse race against each other, urging voters to consolidate behind whichever was closer to overtaking Labour in their seat.

Welsh government deputy first minister Huw Irranca-Davies declined to concede after polls closed, calling the race “tough” and citing “real” cost-of-living pressures. “We know this has been a tough election campaign, fought in difficult circumstances,” he said in a statement quoted by BBC Wales. “After many years in government in Wales and with Labour now governing across the UK, there was always going to be a strong mood for change and frustration.”

Plaid Cymru MP Ben Lake told BBC Newsnight he expected a “very good result” for his party. “I think we have reason to be satisfied that we’ve done a very good campaign, that people have liked what they’ve seen and what they’ve read, in terms of our policies,” he said.

Reform candidate Francesca O’Brien, the party’s lead in the Gwyr Abertawe seat, told BBC Radio Wales Breakfast: “I think it is evident that Labour will collapse in Wales today. I think it is almost a referendum not only on Eluned Morgan but also on Keir Starmer.”

Pressure on Starmer mounts

The Welsh result will land alongside a separate set of English local elections in which Labour was already losing ground. Reform UK had taken roughly 327 council seats in early counting, including its first London council in Havering. Labour lost councils in Hartlepool, Tameside, Redditch and Tamworth, and surrendered Wandsworth and Westminster, the Guardian reported.

Sir Keir Starmer struck a defiant tone Friday morning. “The results are tough, they are very tough, and there’s no sugarcoating it,” he said. He acknowledged voters were unhappy with “the pace of change” Labour had delivered but insisted he would not “walk away from those challenges and plunge the country into chaos.”

Calls for him to step down came from Labour’s own benches. Hartlepool MP Jonathan Brash told The Guardian: “I think the very best thing the prime minister could do now is address the nation tomorrow and set out a timetable for his departure. We can then have an orderly transition.”

Former shadow chancellor John McDonnell said: “The party needs to consider why we are in this situation. The leadership question has inevitably to be on the agenda.”

A loyal cabinet, for now

Senior cabinet members rallied to the prime minister overnight. Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy told reporters: “You don’t change the pilot during a flight.” Defence Secretary John Healey said Friday: “I think he can still deliver, he can still turn it round. The last thing I think people want to see is the potential chaos of a leadership election.”

Welsh figures were more circumspect. Former Welsh counsel general Mick Antoniw, who did not seek re-election, told BBC Wales: “If the results are as bad as predicted then there will have to be a change of leadership. Not an immediate departure but a planned, orderly and open transition and an open and transparent contest.” Asked whether he stood by the prime minister, ex-Welsh first minister Carwyn Jones said: “Yes, I don’t think it’s simply a question of if Keir Starmer goes everything will be fine. It’s not that easy.”

Health Secretary Wes Streeting, former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham have been named in NBC News reporting as potential successors readying themselves for an internal challenge.

What the Welsh result decides

If Plaid Cymru emerges as the largest party, it would seek a coalition or supply-and-confidence deal in Cardiff Bay. Plaid has campaigned on Welsh independence and on stopping Reform from running the country, and either Labour or the Liberal Democrats are the most likely partners.

If Reform finishes first or close to it, the coalition maths gets harder. The party has no obvious ally in the chamber.

Labour’s path back depends on the seat count. A bottom-of-ladder result wipes out the parliamentary group that has run the Welsh government on health, education, transport and local services since 1999. A merely poor result still leaves Labour as a coalition contender.

What happens next

Starmer is due to deliver a speech on Monday outlining policy plans for the rest of the parliament, followed by the King’s Speech on Wednesday. Both events are expected to include moves toward closer ties with the European Union, a pitch aimed at progressive voters the party fears it has lost to the Greens.

The Senedd count was expected to run through Friday and into the weekend, with full constituency results to follow.