Section
Economy
Gilt yields hit 1998 high as Streeting quits to challenge Starmer
UK 30-year gilt yields surged to their highest level since 1998 on Wednesday after Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned to launch a leadership challenge against Prime Minister Keir Starmer, rattling bond markets already strained by the Iran war and a global energy crunch.
OPEC cuts 2026 oil demand forecast as Brent crude nears $106
OPEC slashed its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast by roughly 200,000 barrels per day, but supply losses from the Strait of Hormuz closure pushed Brent crude near $106 a barrel as cartel production fell more than 30 percent since the Iran war began.
Warsh confirmed Fed chair as US inflation hits 3.8 per cent
The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as chair of the Federal Reserve in a 54-45 vote, the most divisive in the institution's history, as April consumer prices rose 3.8 per cent — the fastest pace since May 2023.
Oil climbs as Trump warns Iran truce on life support
Brent crude closed at $107.77 a barrel Monday after Trump dismissed Iran's ceasefire offer and warned the truce was on "life support," prolonging Hormuz closure.
Basrah crudes lead global gains as oil prices climb on Iran ceasefire uncertainty
Basrah crude grades surged nearly 5 percent on Monday as fading optimism over an Iran ceasefire refocused markets on supply risks through the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent topping $106 and OPEC output hitting a 26-year low.
Trump moves to suspend gas tax amid Iran war
Trump plans to suspend the 18.4-cent gas tax as Iran war pushes prices to $4.52. The proposal requires Congress and drains $500 million weekly.
US CPI seen at 3.7% in April amid Iran war
The consumer price index is forecast to show a 0.6% monthly increase, pushing the annual rate to 3.7% — the highest since September 2023 as energy costs from the Iran war persist.
OPEC Oil Output Sinks to 26-Year Low as Iran War Chokes Hormuz Traffic
OPEC crude production fell to 20.04 million barrels per day in April, the lowest since 2000, as the Iran war shut down tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and left Gulf producers unable to ship barrels to global markets.
Bessent tells Congress oil prices will drop after Iran conflict
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told lawmakers he expects oil and gasoline prices to fall sharply once the U.S.-led conflict with Iran concludes, pointing to the Strait of Hormuz as the main price driver.
US consumer prices rise 3.8% in April, dimming Fed cut hopes
Headline inflation hit 3.8% in April, the highest since May 2023, with core prices also running above forecasts as the Iran war keeps energy costs elevated and markets push back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
China and US set Seoul trade talks before Trump's Beijing summit
China and the United States confirmed that Vice-Premier He Lifeng and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet in Seoul for two days of trade negotiations, the final preparatory round before President Donald Trump's state visit to Beijing for a summit with Xi Jinping.
Yardeni lifts S&P 500 target to 8,250 as earnings defy macro risks
Ed Yardeni raised his year-end S&P 500 target to 8,250, the highest on Wall Street, and boosted the odds of his Roaring 2020s thesis to 80 per cent, betting that resilient corporate earnings will overwhelm risks from the Hormuz closure and elevated bond yields.
Bowman warns Fed capital rules shifted corporate lending into private credit
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said post-2008 bank capital rules created a "perverse incentive" that drove corporate lending from regulated banks into the $1.4 trillion private credit market, and outlined a Basel III recalibration to bring some of that activity back.
Voter Disapproval of Trump Economy Hits 58 Per Cent in FT Poll
A Financial Times poll finds nearly 58 per cent of US voters disapprove of Donald Trump handling of inflation and cost of living, with majority disapproval also registered on his management of jobs, the economy and the Iran conflict six months before the midterm elections.
Cash piles top $8.2 trillion as US equity benchmarks set records
Money parked in US money market funds reached an all-time high of $8.2 trillion in early May as the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite traded near records. The simultaneous build in cash and equities is unusual in modern market history.
US Trade Court Rules Trump Global Tariffs Unlawful in Narrow Ruling
The US Court of International Trade ruled 2-1 that President Trump's 10 per cent global tariffs are unlawful under a 1974 trade law, but limited immediate relief to just three plaintiffs. The decision marks the second major judicial setback for the administration's tariff agenda in three months.
Aramco Q1 profit rises 26pc as pipeline offsets Hormuz closure
Saudi Aramco reported a 26 per cent rise in first-quarter adjusted net income to $33.6 billion, beating analyst estimates. The crude price surge that followed the closure of the Strait of Hormuz flowed through to the state oil giant's bottom line.
China holds rare earths and Hormuz cards as Trump heads to Beijing
President Donald Trump is scheduled to arrive in Beijing on May 14 for a state summit with Xi Jinping. Analysts and Taiwan officials say critical-minerals leverage, the Middle East energy fallout, and a contested Taiwan policy stack the meeting on Beijing's side.
Warsh nomination as Fed chair raises bull-market unwind risk, analysts warn
Kevin Warsh's arrival as Federal Reserve chair on May 15 sets in motion forces that could unwind the equity rally. His agenda to shrink the $6.7 trillion balance sheet and negotiate a new Treasury-Fed accord collides with Trump's demand for rate cuts.
African oil producers face revenue risk as UAE quits OPEC
African oil exporters face a revenue squeeze while import-dependent economies stand to gain from lower fuel costs after the UAE exited OPEC on 1 May, ending 59 years of membership in the producers' group.
Powell to stay on Fed board after chairmanship, breaking 75-year norm
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he will stay on the Board of Governors after his term as chair ends 15 May, citing an open criminal inquiry into the central bank's $2.5bn building project. The decision breaks a 75-year tradition.
Fed inflation tracker warns prices accelerating as Iran war fuel shock persists
Cleveland Fed nowcast shows headline PCE at 3.73 per cent in April and a Q2 pace above 5 per cent, narrowing the path to any 2026 rate cut. Goolsbee says cuts may slip to 2027.
Fed warns rising risks even as financial system holds firm
The US Federal Reserve's May Financial Stability Report flagged geopolitical conflict, an oil supply shock and AI-related leverage as the top concerns of market contacts. The central bank said the financial system remains resilient, with banks well capitalised.
US solar factory financing freezes under Trump China ownership rules
Solar manufacturers, banks, and insurers have stopped working with at least six recently built US panel factories over uncertainty about their eligibility for clean-energy subsidies. The pullback jeopardises more than a third of domestic solar module capacity and threatens to raise electricity prices.
US consumer sentiment hits record low as gas prices eclipse jobs data
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell to 48.2 in May, the lowest reading since the survey began in 1952, even as employers added nearly twice the number of jobs economists had expected in April.
Powell's final week as Fed chair begins as Senate prepares to confirm Warsh
Powell's final week as Fed chair begins with Kevin Warsh's Senate confirmation set for May 11, the DOJ probe of Powell freshly closed, and bond yields, banks and the dollar already trading the handover.
Dollar slips on US-Iran peace hopes as stocks steady on jobs data
The US dollar headed for a second consecutive weekly decline as investors bet on a diplomatic resolution to the Iran conflict. US stocks held near record levels after stronger than expected jobs data helped offset the drag from elevated oil prices.
Fed's Mary Daly Says Inflation Expectations Stable Despite Energy Surge
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said inflation expectations remain stable despite the recent surge in energy prices, adding that the central bank must work on price stability without overreacting to the economic effects of the Iran conflict and trade tariffs.
UAE exit from OPEC weakens cartel pricing power, analysts warn
The United Arab Emirates' departure from OPEC after nearly six decades has reduced the cartel's global market share and could trigger further exits, as Abu Dhabi pursues an independent production strategy targeting 5 million barrels per day.
Trade court strikes down Trump 10 per cent tariff on most imports
A federal trade court has voided President Trump's 10 per cent blanket tariff on most imports, the second major legal defeat for the administration's trade agenda this year. The 2-1 ruling found the White House had overstepped its authority by reimposing duties under a different statute after the Supreme Court struck them down.
China extends zero-tariff access to all African nations
China has extended zero-tariff treatment to all African nations with which it maintains diplomatic relations, expanding a preferential trade programme that has operated for two decades as bilateral trade hit record levels.
Treasury hikes Series I bond rate to 4.26% as inflation jumps to 3.3%
The U.S. Treasury raised the Series I savings bond rate to 4.26 per cent on Thursday after a March CPI report that showed annual inflation jumping from 2.4 to 3.3 per cent. Almost all of the move traces to a single variable: the price of oil.
Rupiah hits record low as Bank Indonesia tightens FX rules for third time in two months
Bank Indonesia cut the threshold for undocumented dollar purchases to $25,000 on Tuesday after the rupiah closed at a record 17,445. Reserves are draining across emerging Asia, and the post-1998 playbook is showing its age.
Long bonds crack 5% then ease as Treasury holds $125bn refunding line
The 30-year US Treasury yield touched 5.03 per cent on Monday, its first break above the threshold since July, before pulling back. On Wednesday Treasury kept its $125 billion refunding plan flat and held the line on its forward guidance.
Big Tech AI capex now drives three-quarters of US GDP growth
Capital expenditure on AI infrastructure by Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle is now responsible for roughly 75 per cent of all US economic growth in Q1 2026, according to estimates compiled this week. Stop the AI build-out and you print a recession headline within two quarters.
Brent retreats below $111 as UAE exit eases supply jitters
Brent crude prices fell 3.6 per cent to $110.4 a barrel on Tuesday as traders weighed the UAE's departure from OPEC against the war in Iran and another round of Iranian missile and drone strikes against Gulf shipping.
Wall Street closes at record highs as oil eases and US hiring surges
US stock markets closed at fresh record highs on Tuesday after a sharp pullback in oil prices and another wave of better-than-expected earnings reasserted Wall Street's ability to look past the Iran war. The S&P 500 rose 0.8 per cent to 7,259.22, a fresh all-time high.
UAE's exit from OPEC redraws the global oil order
The UAE's withdrawal from OPEC, made effective May 1, has knocked the third-largest producer out of the cartel and tilted Gulf geopolitics toward Washington. ADNOC accelerated $55 billion in project awards as it pushes capacity to 5 million bpd by 2027.
UK 30-year gilt yields hit 28-year high as Iran war and election jitters collide
The yield on 30-year UK government bonds climbed to 5.78 per cent on Tuesday, the highest level since 1998, as the Iran war drove up energy prices and traders weighed a possible leadership challenge to Sir Keir Starmer after Thursday's local elections.
Powell hands divided Fed to Warsh as 'integrity' speech caps tumultuous chairmanship
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in what was almost certainly his last press conference at the helm, said 'integrity is priceless' and warned the Trump administration's 'illegal attacks' on the Fed risked compromising monetary policy. He will stay on the Board of Governors after his May 15 term ends.
